Pakistan Political Leaders & Security Threats

The Pakistani Interior Ministry on March 12 warned top opposition leader and two-time former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif of jihadist plans to assassinate Pakistani political leaders, meaning the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leader should avoid appearances at public gatherings. The PML-N responded by saying that Sharif’s security is the responsibility of the government. Shortly thereafter, Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani ordered security agencies to provide “foolproof” protection to the PML-N chief. The massive uprising in the form of the gives the government an interest in issuing such statements, preventing Sharif from speaking at public demonstrations. The government is also using the threat of jihadist attacks to try to reduce the number of people attending mass rallies. Even so, the threat that jihadist groups might assassinate top political figures is very real — and the implications thereof are very grave.

Such groups increasingly have targeted top Pakistani officials, such as in the failed assassination attempts on former President Pervez Musharraf and the successful assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and several other leaders. Just days ago, senior politician and North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) provincial minister Bashir Bilour narrowly escaped a suicide-bomber attack targeting him.

Despite the need to continue with business as usual, Pakistani politicians have become extremely worried about their personal safety, especially given the rapidly deteriorating law and order in the country. The jihadists have an interest in creating anarchy, and there is no better way to do this than by killing political leaders — especially leaders like Sharif, despite his reluctance to take a tough stand against the jihadist insurgency. After Bhutto’s death, Sharif became Pakistan’s only leader of national prominence.

Eliminating Sharif from the political scene could very well create a power vacuum, which would exacerbate the political fragmentation in the country. Other than Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the PML-N, Pakistan’s other parties are at best regional forces. Moreover, Bhutto’s successors in the PPP have become extremely unpopular because of their government’s continuation of the policies of the Musharraf regime. And a power vacuum would likely facilitate the rise of radical Islamist forces.

Assassinating Sharif would trigger riots, especially in Punjab, his home province and the largest province in the country. The resulting chaos could help the jihadists expand their insurgency from the Pashtun areas in the tribal belt and the NWFP to Punjab, which is close to the South Asian country’s troubled northwest and home to its own brand of jihadist groups that enjoy a significant social support base. Security in Punjab going the way of the country’s Pashtun areas would represent a significant blow to the cohesion of the Pakistani state, and a significant security threat to neighboring India.